Market flat on the open

This morning has been pretty quiet, with no data releases scheduled on the calendar today. Tomorrow morning we’ll see Carney testifying in front of the Treasury Select Committee, where it is likely his opinions will be sought on the referendum implications, which could drive volatility as investors are looking for reassurance on Britain’s future.

On the open, Sterling has struggled to make any headway. Risk aversion is still holding GBP down, with the shadow cast by the EU referendum was joined to by disappointing UK data, adding to prevailing sentiment that the BoE is unlikely to raise interest rates until late 2017.

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On Friday, the Non-Farm Payrolls disappointed – the data showed an increase in jobs created (+242k) but the wage inflation element softened more than in February. This was taken badly by the market, as wage inflation is a key metric needed to support further rate increases in the US, and the USD lost ground.

EUR/USD pushed up to the week-high when Non-Farm Payrolls failed to support USD. This morning, industrial order data from Germany at -0.1% (Vs. -0.3% forecast) added pressure to EUR performance and highlights the frailty of the EU recovery. This week, we have the ECB rate decision on Thursday, where the expectation is for an increase in the QE measures and Germany’s CPI inflation data on Friday.