20 November 2025: Owners race to sell £1.5m-plus homes before the budget over tax fears

Rumours of a change in Capital Gains Tax have encouraged owners at the top end of the property market to put their properties on the market.

Lawyers and estate agents are reporting a flurry of last-minute panic from sellers of properties worth £1.5 million or more, amid reports that primary homes may face a capital gains tax charge for the first time.

Under the rules as they stand, higher rate taxpayers pay 24 percent of the value of any “gain” they have made from the increase in the value of their home, while basic rate taxpayers pay 18 percent. However, these charges are at present only in place for second homes; primary properties are exempt. There are reports that the chancellor plans to expand the tax on November 26 to help bridge the Treasury’s £20 billion black hole.

Estate agents believe that a fear of CGT being imposed on a main property, plus possibly further stamp duty rises, are the issues that are weighing most on the minds of buyers and sellers near completion. They view these measures as an attack on wealth.

The latest inflation data was published yesterday, with the core rate falling for the first time in five months. Several City analysts are considering the possibility that Andrew Bailey will reward mortgage payers with a rate cut for Christmas.

Consumer price inflation dropped to 3.6% in October from 3.8% in September, its joint-highest since January 2024, the Office for National Statistics said. The fall was in line with forecasts from both the BoE and Reuters economists.

"With inflation now on what should be a sustained downward path, economic growth softening, and next week's budget likely to deliver a significant fiscal tightening, the conditions are in place for a BoE rate cut in December," Martin Beck, chief economist at WPI Strategy, said. However, the more hawkish members of the MPC may see such thoughts as putting the cart before the horse.

The BoE paused its quarterly rate-cutting cycle earlier this month, and finance minister Rachel Reeves has said she will seek to avoid tax and spending measures that might add to inflation in her annual budget on November 26.

Keir Starmer has been told to "wake up" after he refused to rule out a stealth tax in the upcoming Budget. In a fiery PMQs clash with Conservative Party leader Kemi Badenoch, the Prime Minister was asked whether he would rule out freezing income tax thresholds at the Budget. She said: "This is the first Budget to unravel before it's even been delivered. The Chancellor's cluelessness, I'm afraid, is damaging the economy now.

"The Prime Minister needs to end this shambles. So can he confirm today that he won't break another promise by freezing income tax thresholds?"

The pound sank to a low of 1.3052 and closed there as traders feared that if inflation proves to be under control, it will free the BoE to cut rates further.

Donald Trump never gets tired of threatening the Federal Reserve Chairman with the sack. Some Wall Street CEOs would actually welcome Trump taking decisive action. So the question is, what is holding the President back?

There are several potential answers, but the most favoured is that Trump still wants Powell as a scapegoat to blame should the economy fall into recession in the coming months, or if the massive investment in AI-based tech turns out to be a bubble, which would take years to recover from and likely shape Trump’s entire second term.

The steep tariffs President Trump imposed in August led to a contraction in imports and a decline in the trade deficit, newly released data shows. The U.S. trade deficit narrowed more than expected in August as businesses imported fewer goods amid higher tariffs, a trend that, if sustained, could be a potential tailwind for economic growth in the third quarter.

But a drop in consumer goods imports to levels last seen early in the COVID-19 pandemic and a decline in capital goods imports, including computer accessories and telecommunications equipment, reported by the Commerce Department on Wednesday, could signal slower consumer and business spending last quarter.

President Trump has imposed sweeping tariffs on the nation's trade partners, accusing them of taking advantage of the United States. The U.S. Supreme Court heard arguments early this month on the legality of Trump's import duties, with justices raising doubts about his authority to impose tariffs under the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act.

The good news for trade and the U.S. economy is that the tariffs are working, but the bad news is also that they are working.

Markets and Federal Reserve officials will scramble to find which is true, but maybe both are."

The trade gap contracted 23.8% to $59.6 billion, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis and Census Bureau said. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the trade deficit would ease to $61.0 billion.

The report, initially scheduled for release on October 7, was delayed by the recently ended 43-day government shutdown.

Imports decreased 5.1% to $340.4 billion. Goods imports tumbled 6.6% to $264.6 billion. The decline was led by an $11.3 billion plunge in industrial supplies and materials, primarily reflecting a $9.3 billion decrease in non-monetary gold.

This component is excluded from the calculation of gross domestic product. Imports of consumer goods fell $3.7 billion to the lowest level since July 2020 amid notable declines in jewellery and pharmaceutical preparations.

Capital goods imports slipped $3.4 billion, with imports of computer accessories decreasing $1.3 billion while those of telecommunications equipment fell $1.1 billion. But imports of computers increased $2.3 billion. Food imports declined by $1.6 billion.

The dollar index closed above the 100 level for the first time in six months, providing an interesting backdrop for the rest of 2025.

An unexpected vacancy at the top of the Eurogroup is scrambling the already complex task of replacing two-thirds of the European Central Bank’s upper echelon over the next two years.

The departure of Irish Finance Minister Paschal Donohoe, who had led meetings of his euro-area peers for more than five years, leaves his colleagues with another job to fill just after they kicked off the search for a successor to ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos, whose term ends in May.

Three more positions on the Central Bank’s Executive Board will become available by the end of 2027, including the Presidency currently held by Christine Lagarde and Philip Lane’s chief economist role.

It is unclear if Lane’s tenure can be extended, as such an opportunity has been requested or offered before.

The prospect has prompted plenty of speculation about possible nominees for the board, with some nations even making their claims public. Finland’s government has said it supports Olli Rehn, the current head of the country’s Central Bank and former European commissioner, for the post of ECB vice president. Croatia is prepared to back Boris Vujcic’s bid, and Latvia has said it will also propose a candidate.

But Donohoe’s resignation on Tuesday to become the World Bank’s managing director is suddenly presenting a more immediate challenge that may serve as a first test of countries’ ambitions in advance of the ECB management shakeup.

The Irishman won reelection to the Eurogroup helm in July, beating Spain’s Carlos Cuerpo and Lithuania’s Rimantas Sadzius, who is no longer in office. It will now select a new president “as soon as possible,” according to a statement.

A strategic question for Spain to consider is whether another attempt by Cuerpo could impair Pablo Hernández de Cos's chances of succeeding Lagarde as ECB president when her term expires in late 2027, since he is seen as one of the key contenders for the role.

In a recent speech, ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane told students at the University of Galway that he believes that the EU's Labour market should remain stable for at least the first half of 2026. However, he fears it will begin to suffer as job postings decline in several EU states.

The Euro 1.1517 and closed at 1.1723 as the dollar index rallied above the 100 level.

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