30 May 2025: Does pension reform really mean £6k for every worker?

Highlights

  • Starmer fights back against Farage
  • The White House responds to the ruling against tariffs as the US economy shrinks
  • It looks like June cut and a July pause are on the cards

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GBP – Market Commentary

Starmer sees Farage as his main opponent

The Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, is determined to push through reforms of the pension sector that she claims have the potential to provide £6k of benefit to every worker throughout the lifetime of their pension pot.

Government proposals to reform pension management were released yesterday, featuring boosts for workers and £25bn megafunds, painting a positive picture for the future.

Reeves said the “reforms mean better returns for workers” and pointed out that extra investment for businesses in the UK could push economic growth. However, it’s all a bit abstract for workers, especially on the back of a recent study looking at whether pension contributions were subject to tax, who might simply want to know: what’s happening to my pension now?

Currently, many pension providers are in operation across the UK, large and small. The plan is to combine many of them into “megafunds”, with employer-defined contribution (DC) pensions, which are workplace pensions that employees automatically pay into from their salary before tax, being pooled with others to create giant funds worth at least £25bn.

Local government pension schemes will be consolidated too, from 86 authorities down to six groups.

Industry body the Society of Pension Professionals has given its approval to the scheme, as have many of the UK’s largest existing pensions companies, with deputy prime minister Angela Rayner saying the money in these pension pools will drive “growth and opportunities in communities across the country for years to come”.

Meanwhile, the Prime Minister has been stung into action by Nigel Farage’s attempt to “hijack” proposals for the removal of the two-child cap on family welfare benefits.

In a speech earlier this week, Farage announced that, if elected, Reform UK would scrap the measure, and it would be funded by doing away with the net-zero target for emissions, which is a cornerstone of Labour’s energy strategy.

Keir Starmer likened Farage’s ideas to harking back to the days of Liz Truss, when she announced unfunded proposals to cut taxes.

Mr Farage has sought to woo working-class Labour voters by leaning left with support for scrapping the two-child benefit cap and fully reinstating winter fuel payments.

But he simultaneously backs a series of tax cuts, which left experts at the Institute for Fiscal Studies saying there could be an £ 85 billion hole in their plans.

That would dwarf the £45 billion of unfunded tax cuts announced by former Tory Prime Minister Liz Truss in her disastrous 2022 mini-Budget.

Speaking in Warrington, Sir Keir said: 'He set out economic plans which contain billions upon billions of completely unfunded spending. Precisely the sort of irresponsible splurge that sent your mortgage costs, your bills and the cost of living through the roof. It's Liz Truss all over again.'

The pound rallied yesterday as news of a legal challenge to the imposition of tariffs had been successful in the U.S. It rallied to a high of 1.3594 and, despite several attempts, was unable to break stubborn resistance. It eventually closed at 1.3476.

USD – Market Commentary

The FOMC preaches Caution and Clarity

Donald Trump is likely beside himself with anger over news that a court has backed a motion by several states and large corporations that challenge his right to act alone in imposing tariffs on the majority of nations that export goods and services to the U.S.

Trump’s team immediately said they would appeal the ruling and insisted that tariffs would remain in place until their appeal is heard.

Trump questioned the right of a group of unelected judges to interfere in an economic policy that he has used emergency legislation to deal with.

A Federal Court ruling on Donald Trump’s global tariffs found that the President “exceeded his authority” when he imposed his so-called “Liberation Day” levies last month.

Trump’s deputy chief of staff, Stephen Miller, accused the court of a “judicial coup,” while White House spokesman Kush Desai savaged the court’s decision in a statement, saying it was not for “unelected judges to decide how to properly address a national emergency.”

Preliminary data published yesterday confirmed that the economy shrank by 0.2% in the first quarter as businesses and consumers braced themselves for the arrival of the tariffs that Trump had been threatening throughout his initial days in office.

First-quarter growth was brought down by a surge in imports, as companies hurried to bring in foreign goods before the President imposed massive import taxes.

Imports rose by 42.6% between January and March, although consumer spending fell. This points to a massive restocking of shops and warehouses in preparation for the imposition of tariffs that were announced in early April.

The U.S. trade court ruling blocking some of the Trump administration's sweeping tariffs may not clear up the uncertainty that is holding back U.S. businesses, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee said on Thursday, because the administration may find other ways to impose tariffs.

"If people can't count on consistent policy, then they're just going to slow down and not act," Goolsbee said in an interview on the radio.

"If this court case ushers in an era where we're going to finally get some consistency, the dirt comes out of the air, and we can go back to doing what we were doing before, that would be a positive. If this court case leads to a further extension of, well, if we can't do it this way, we could do the tariffs a different way, it turns into an extension of the uncertainty, then I fear that would be a little more of a negative."

The dollar reacted negatively to the increase in uncertainty, with the index falling to a low of 99.23.

EUR – Market Commentary

Pause on leave on holiday appears to be the ECB’s position

Even before the news became official that ECB President Christine Lagarde is set to become the leader of the World Economic Forum, the prospect has been criticised.

After six years as head of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde appears to be failing upwards once again.

Klaus Schwab, the founder and former head of the World Economic Forum, claimed recently that Lagarde has been in talks to take charge of the organisation, thus ending her career at the ECB two years earlier than expected.

Although the ECB has said that Lagarde is “committed” to seeing out her term through 2027, the WEF already seems to be setting the stage for her arrival, reserving an apartment for her at its Villa Mundi complex overlooking Lake Geneva.

Having left his role at the WEF last month in the wake of alleged financial misconduct, Schwab has naturally been on the lookout for a full-time successor, and the fact he seems to have settled on Lagarde is no surprise, since like attracts like.

Lagarde has been a mainstay of the European technocratic scene for years, and despite her incredibly mixed track record throughout her time at both the International Monetary Fund and the ECB, her place atop the continent’s bureaucratic elite and all it represents is what matters most.

For Schwab as much as for Lagarde, institutional continuity is the ultimate end of the incestuousness of the European technocratic class, for whom the WEF represents its holy grail.

Lagarde’s apparent selection may be an effort to get the WEF to catch up with the times.

She has made some largely cosmetic changes at the ECB, incorporating headline-grabbing issues such as climate change research into the bank’s purview.

Just a few days ago, she floated the idea of a “global euro moment” in response to the decline of the dollar brought on by Donald Trump’s tariffs.

But despite having earned her stripes as an adaptable liberal, Lagarde remains as much of a gatekeeper of the top-down European economic order as Schwab and her ECB predecessor Mario Draghi, and will ensure that the Davos crowd stays happy and unencumbered by the rapid shifts in the world order happening all around them.

Back in the real world, there is speculation that the ECB’s Governing Council will not be able to resist one further rate cut before pausing the cycle just in time for the traditional August period when its members will dash to Europe’s beaches to contemplate their work in the first half of the year.

A July cut, which would take the headline rate below the 2% threshold, should they cut in June, is now considered “a bridge too far”.

The Euro is not reacting to economic reality, since it remains tied up in the “tariff wars”.

Although rates have been cut consistently over the past three quarters, the currency has remained buoyant. Yesterday, it rose to 1.1382 as the market heaved a sigh of relief that sanity may have broken out, prompted by the U.S. judicial system.

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Alan Hill

Alan has been involved in the FX market for more than 25 years and brings a wealth of experience to his content. His knowledge has been gained while trading through some of the most volatile periods of recent history. His commentary relies on an understanding of past events and how they will affect future market performance.