Daily Market Brief – 8 March 2016

Carney on Brexit

Quote of the day: “Time flies, but you’re the pilot!”

March 8th: Highlights

  • BOE Gov Carney testifies to Treasury Select Committee
  • UK Retail Sales fall short
  • MPC Member Weale Speaks

Market Comment

Once again, not a wild day on the data-front, which will give the market plenty of time to review what Governor Carney thinks about “The economic and financial costs and benefits of UK’s EU membership” or, in basic terms, should we stay or should we go? When you consider that, officially, Carney is obliged not to reveal his personal opinion on Brexit, we might experience a few delicately worded answers as the Committee press him to reveal his own standing, especially as this minefield has already cost the head of the British Chambers of Commerce his job!

UK Retail Sales posted +0.1% (down from +2.6% last month). Yesterday, the BoE announced that they could provide billions in emergency support, after a “Leave” vote, if the market needed it. Current odds show 1/3 for “Stay” and 5/2 for “Leave”.

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This week’s ECB meeting on Thursday is widely expected to deliver further stimulus measures. As before, in Q4, the key consideration is how much and in what form – the Euro benefitted on the last decision as the additional measures were less than expected. Germany released Industrial Production figures this morning, which were positive at +3.3% (Vs 0.6% expected).

China released Trade Balance data. The Chinese slowdown continues to affect the worldwide economies of trading partner nations and concerns surround the future demand levels from China.

Brent crude managed to advance up to $40 in the afternoon session. The Fed’s Fischer commented that he feels that inflation will move closer to the 2% level when we see the oil price stabilise. So with no end in sight for the oversupply, inflation may remain lower for longer, pushing considerations for the next Fed rate move as far back as June.

Have a great day!

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Paul Plewman
Director of Sales & Operations
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