Daily Market Brief – 14 January 2016

Sterling stabilised ahead of BoE meeting

Quote of the day: “The expert in anything was once a beginner”

January 14th: Highlights

  • GBP stops the slide ahead of BoE meeting
  • USD poised to benefit further from policy divergence
  • Crude drops below $30 – first time in 12yrs.
  • US / Asian markets sell-off

Sterling Comment

In fairly quiet market conditions yesterday, Sterling stabilised slightly ahead of the BoE meeting today. Market consensus is for policy to remain unchanged (for interest rates or QE) but the BoE minutes could shed more light on the views regarding the recent slump in GBP, lack of reaction in domestic wages and the apparent slowdown in the UK recovery. If the balance of votes changes and we see a reversion to 9-0, then this could lead to another move lower for GBP as it will further underline the policy divergence with the US.

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Global Comment

Sentiment took another knock yesterday as crude slipped below $30 per barrel for the first time in 12yrs. Wall Street and Asian markets have seen significant selling pressure and when we add in the terrorism in Jakarta, the markets may well be a little jittery today.

Eurozone industrial production missed forecasts, posting -0.7% (Vs. -0.2%), but this wasn’t enough to push trade out of the current range, where it drifted for most of the day. Focus is now on the Eurozone meetings, but keep an eye on the sentiment for global stocks as this will likely play a role as the day develops.

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Paul Plewman
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